⁠From Flat to Fireworks: FY24 Market Recap | Govindraj Ethiraj | The Core Report

On Episode 545 of The Core Report, financial journalist Govindraj Ethiraj talks to Madhavi Arora, Chief Economist, Emkay Global Financial Services as well as Aditya Valiathan Pillai, Visiting Fellow at Sustainable Futures Collaborative.

SHOW NOTES
(00:00) Stories of the Day
(01:09) Markets crackle in slog overs to close last financial year in positive
(02:14) Gold hits a fresh record high, up 37% in last financial year
(05:50) Credit card spends fall to a 7-month low of ₹1.67 trillion in February
(08:37) Tariffs will hit tomorrow, how should India be thinking about them going ahead?
(18:36) Fresh predictions on a hot April and summer. How should private and Government sectors be approaching this?

Markets & More:

Indian markets ended FY24-25 with a late surge. Nifty rose 6.3% in March, closing the year up 5.34%. Sensex gained 5.1% in March and 7.5% annually — the weakest in two years. Midcap and smallcap indices rose 7.5% and 5.4%.

Gold soared 38% to $3,070/oz, its best since FY08, and recently hit $3,128 — up ~18% YTD. Geopolitical tensions could keep it strong.

The rupee fell 2.1% vs USD in FY25, after 1.5% in FY24, though it outperformed regional peers. FIIs returned strongly in March, adding $3B in the last 6 sessions, despite $16B net outflows for the year.

Global stocks fell Monday as Trump confirmed new tariffs from April 2. Auto tariffs could hurt Indian parts exporters. Recession fears are rising; Goldman pegs U.S. recession risk at 35%.

Oil neared $74 as Trump floated “secondary tariffs” on Russian oil. Markets remained cautious amid mixed signals.

Bank Credit Slows Down:

Bank loan growth slowed for the 8th straight month in Feb, rising 12% YoY vs 16.6% last year.

Credit card spends fell to ₹1.67T in Feb from ₹1.84T in Jan. POS and ecommerce transactions also dipped.

Tighter RBI rules from late 2023, aimed at rising unsecured lending, led to slower retail credit. Banks pulled back to manage credit-deposit ratios.

In March, RBI relaxed capital norms. Analysts expect benefits ahead, but impact will take time.

Credit cards in circulation rose to 109.31M. HDFC Bank leads with 23.62M, followed by SBI (20.66M), ICICI (18.11M), and Axis (14.77M).

Which Way Will Tariffs Go:

April 2 — “Liberation Day,” per Trump — may reshape trade.
India is negotiating hard to protect agriculture, possibly lowering duties on select imports like pecans and pulses while seeking better U.S. market access for grapes and organic produce.

India imported $31.9B in agri-goods in FY24, with $1.56B from the U.S. Most of this rise is due to vegetable oil, which India mostly imports from GM crops.

Agri and dairy are red lines for India; beyond that, it’s open season.
Economists like Emkay’s Madhavi Arora are modeling worst-case tariff impacts and recovery paths.

Visa Fees:

Visa costs are set to rise from April 1.
The UK, Australia, and EU will increase charges by about 13% across categories — from tourist visas to work permits and university tuition.

This will impact Indians planning to travel, work, or study abroad. And as always, paying a fee doesn’t guarantee visa approval. Applicants should brace for stricter scrutiny alongside higher costs.

Hot Weather:

April is expected to be much hotter than usual across India.
The heat follows a warm March and raises concerns about damage to wheat crops currently being harvested.

Power demand is projected to hit a record 270GW this summer, exceeding last year’s 250GW. Preparations are on to ensure full operational capacity.

Diesel generator usage is also likely to increase in areas prone to blackouts. Experts like Aditya Valiathan Pillai are working with the government to scale heatwave mitigation strategies across sectors.

Watch the full FY24 Market Recap with Govindraj Ethiraj on The Core Report, featuring Madhavi Arora and Aditya Valiathan Pillai. Don’t forget to like, share, and subscribe for expert analysis on markets, gold, credit trends, tariffs, and heatwave risks. Stay tuned for more from The Core Report.

#FY24MarketRecap #IndianEconomy #GovindrajEthiraj #TheCoreReport #FinancePodcast

Listeners! We await your feedback: https://tinyurl.com/TCR-Listener-Survey

The Core & The Core Report is ad supported & FREE for all readers & listeners. Write in to shiva@thecore.in for sponsorships & brand studio requirements.

For more of our coverage check out thecore.in (https://www.thecore.in/)

Support the Core Report (https://tinyurl.com/Support-the-Core-Report)

Join & Interact anonymously on our WhatsApp channel (https://tinyurl.com/The-Core-WhatsApp-Channel)

Subscribe to our Newsletter (https://www.thecore.in/newsletters/thecorenewsletter)

Follow Us on Social Media for More Updates:
Twitter (https://twitter.com/the_core_in)
Instagram (https://www.instagram.com/the.core.in/)
Facebook (https://www.facebook.com/thecore.biz/)
Linkedin (https://www.linkedin.com/company/thecore-in)
Youtube (https://www.youtube.com/@thecore_in)